Is HARLEY DAVIDSON in financial trouble?

[Cool Hand Luke]

I agree with all above posts. Also, thank you Phantom for posting an interesting article.

In my opinion, HD is long way from being done. Things fluctuate in business anyway. Here is the chart showing HD's income over the past few years:

Attachment 18965

I think their bikes are better in quality now then possibly ever before. Their prices are fairly high for a middle class and blue collar Americans, which is why HD's demographic has been shifting to older wealthier groups over the decades. Right now, they really market to people 45 and over.

The problem for HD is that American demographics are changing. Next decade or two will give them much trouble as it is expected to be a drop in people 45 and over, due to baby boomers aging. In fact, one can argue that baby boomers have kept HD in business for a long time. This generation grew up seeing their parents riding HD's, so when older and able they also wanted to ride HD's due to nostalgia. Baby boomers are also a wealthy generation, willing to spend the kind of money HD was asking, and also buying into the whole 'HD lifestyle'. However, as baby boomers age past their riding ability HD will be in trouble.

Generation X and Y kids don't seem to have the same nostalgia towards HD. If they like to ride two wheels than any brand would do. They don't care as much for an HD biker image and do not have the money that HD is asking for their touring bikes. In fact, they are more likely to have started on sport bikes.

HD knows this, their management is not stupid. That is why they are bringing in the Street line of bikes, which are much cheaper and decent performing bikes. The quality is not the same, but all that can be fixed thru HD's accessories and aftermarket. It remains to be seen if this strategy will work out.

Here is anoher great article strictly from investors point of view:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/moneybui.../#4f8cb51b28ef

Of course there is more competition today especially from Polaris. I am a good example of this. I had 2 HD's, Road King and VRod Muscle, and now I also ride Victory Cross Country (in addition to F6B, of course.) I really enjoy Victory's performance and comfort. I think that Polaris is going to continue to chip away HD's cruiser market share as they grow their two brands. Hopefully this competition will result in more choices for us and better, more affordable bikes.

[unsub]

I remember reading an article years ago, that the development of the Yamaha Virago, and subsequent Japanese V twins unwittingly rekindled the Harley brand. It seems the semi retired and the older generation with disposable income and the desire to ride witnessed the introduction of Japanese V twins and that triggered Harley nostalgia. So, when making the decision to buy another motorcycle many decided to buy the brand instead of the knock off. As I understand it Harley capitalized on that nostalgia and created the beginnings of the pseudo bad boy [aka posers] club of riders that exist today. Many of whom are now too old and stiff to throw a leg over the bike and be able to sustain even a 100 miles of the ride without 800mg of naproxen, let alone plunk down 20k for a new one.

Instead of relying on accessorizing the rider maybe they should have focused on building a quality product.
Perhaps that will be HD's saving grace. Drop Motorcycle manufacturing and focus on what they're good at. Accessories and clothing..???

I don't see Victory / Indian / Polaris or whatever iteration of that V motor they make as even being a contender in the void Harley will leave behind....again.

[Retired Army]

Harley only produces motorcycles, Honda produces everything to include luxury jet air planes. Do the math.

[stroguy]

Harley only produces motorcycles, Honda produces everything to include luxury jet air planes. Do the math.

A Harley bi-plane. That'd be cool to see.

[coffee_weasle]

A Harley bi-plane. That'd be cool to see.

not me

[willtill]

A Harley bi-plane. That'd be cool to see.

It would probably drip oil while in flight; just like bird poop

[Bob Penn]

HMMMMM. seems like I've seen this movie before. I think I even participated when AMF bailed out HD. I kind of remember plunking down my hard earned cash to make oil stains on my garage floor (I still haven't fully gotten over that yet)! I must say though it gave me a lot of wrenching experience. But it cured me of any favorable HD image.
Not to worry the company will survive. Have you noticed that walking into most bike show rooms today you see more helmets and other forms of clothing then you see bike parts and accessories. Seems there is a lot of interest in that market. Just ask HD. In fact just the other day here on this very site I almost started a thread commenting on the fact that almost 50% of the threads on the home site were about what are your favorite pants, shoes, and helmets.
Biking is a fad. Like most fads it blossoms for a few years and then it wilts for a few years. Most bikers are riding bikes today that are less than 5 years old with relatively low mileage. So why are they going to buy a new bike especially when they still haven't paid off the loan (with interest adding expense) that was necessary to buy a $30 k bike!
I bought my F6 this past year because my old girl had almost 80k miles on her and when I heard the price I could steel the B for it was a no brainier. I had been looking for a replacement for 2 years but the $30 k price tag on the bike I wanted was ridiculous! As far as I was concerned pound for pound I could buy a Ford 4x4 pick-up for 75% less!
Is HD an American company? I'd like to see a stock holders residence breakdown on that before I comment.