What if.....

[53driver]

As sad as it is they were lucky to save 1. Not good odds.

Concur. They found the pilot (dead) and the backseater (alive) from the F-18. None of the Hercules crew has been found.
This is just me hypothesizing from this point forward....
C-130s are INCREDIBLY robust aircraft and the ways to take them out are to run them out of fuel or cripple the flight controls and actuators (i.e. pilots, controls, cockpit)
I think they went "beak to beak" and the F-18 went into the cockpit of the C-130.
The F-18 has ejection seats, the C-130, not so.
If the rear pilot in the F-18 actuated the ejection, the front pilot may have been already "beyond hope."
Weather near Japan this time of year ABSOLUTELY SUCKS and at 0200 local time weather is hard to discern.
Again, just my hypothesizing.